A Roller-Coaster Ride in the Stock Market
Do you enjoy a roller-coaster6 ride? Ups and downs, zigs7 and zags8, free falls in the dark. I made several such rides in Disney Park in Florida. It was an awful yet exhilarating9 experience. But I vowed that I would not do it again since I really do not have the guts10 to experience so many things out of your vision and out of your control. You do not know where you are going and when it is going to be over.
However, I experienced another long roller-coaster ride in the stock market. So did a lot of my friends. In 1999, the bull dominated the stock markets in the States and stocks simply soared11, Dow and Nasdaq reaching their historical heights respectively. In particular, the technology sector grew like crazy. You did not have to be a technology guru12 to pick the right stock and get rich. You just picked any technology stock, at sheer13 blind random, and you would gain after a short period of time. That was the time when most of us――I mean the circle of our friends――got into the stock market.
In Connell, I had taken a couple of finance courses and learnt some basic concepts about stocks, such as " Buy low, Sell high" ," Diversify your portfolio14" (i.e. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.) and " Invest for the long term." However, being a green hand15 in this market, I found it terribly hard to apply what I learnt. First of all, it was difficult to make a due judgment on when the price hit the bottom and was about to turn upward. I had a watch list. Some stocks just had the momentum16 from nowhere and kept on inching higher and higher; some just went headlong17 in the opposite direction. Secondly, it was easy to say " Diversify your portfolio" . But with my little savings that I invested in the market, it did not seem to make sense to divide a couple of thousand dollars among several stocks. When I tried to apply the evaluation theories to the stocks, they were outrageously expensive, especially those internet stocks. On the other hand, the stocks of traditional industries were punished really hard. They were cheap buys to me and fit the theory of " Buying low," but they seemed to always stay in the red, with no hope of turning green.
Testing the water, I picked two stocks I believed had good fundamentals and were bargains. My husband, who understood nothing about the market, decided to go in an opposite direction. He picked only one technology stock simply by watching the news and following the hot sector. I was really dubious18 of how well he would fare19.
After the day we picked the stocks, we would keep our eyes on how the market did every day. However, we had different reactions to the market. The market soared one day and tanked another day; and to its rhythm20, my spirit rose to the sky and then fell into the hell. Although I told myself I should not be so emotional since I invested for the long term, I could not help myself jumping at the small percent age of gain and stomping21 at the loss.
My husband was able to keep his composure22 no matter what happened. The only thing that was changed by the market was his living habits. He used to get up really late if he had no classes. Since he entered the market, he got up very early to watch the premarket news and made his moves. He traded frequently, sometimes buying and selling within a day. I kidded23 him that instead of becoming an academician24 he ought to become a happy daytrader. In two months, he made a couple of thousand dollars. Encouraged, he invested more time and energy into it. At the end of each day, he had tons25 of analysts' comments about his stocks and mine since I did not have too much time doing research. While I was glad that he enjoyed what he did and made some money, I was afraid that it took up too much of his time. However, it was hard for him to go back to the life before he entered the market. He cut back the time he spent surfing on the internet for the stock-related news, but still could not help turning on the TV to watch CNBC, the channel devoted to the stock market. And when we had a get together with friends, it seemed that the only thing we talked about was the stock market. Everyone was so bullish and a beautiful and bright future seemed to be just around the corner26.
However, a dream was a dream. Half a year later, both my husband and I lost all we gained. We thought it was a correction of the bubbles of technology stocks, as many people believed they were overvalued; it was not the arrival of bears in the market. Once the correction was over, the market would charge ahead again. But even if it was just a correction, it burnt us dearly, since, after putting the principle of " diversify your portfolio" far behind, our portfolio was heavily technology weighted. What was even worse, the overall stock market slipped and slipped into a seemingly bottomless abyss27 that went beyond our ability to gauge28. If I had foreseen such a drastic bearish change in the market, I would have never dared to get into it. My husband was depressed too, but still cautiously29 optimistic about the future. He did not day trade any more, only hoping what he had lost would come back in the long run30.
In 2000, Dow fell 6% and Nasdaq fell 37% for the whole year. When will the market turn back? My husband does not know, neither do I, nor those analysts.
你喜欢坐过山车吗?忽高忽低,左拐右拐,在漆黑一团中自由落下。我曾在佛罗里达的迪斯尼游乐园坐过好几次,真是既可怕又刺激的一种体验。但我发誓不会再坐了,我没有胆量去经历这么多超出自己视野和控制范围的事情。你不知道自己走向何处,也不知道什么时候才是终点。
然而,我在股市上又经历了一次漫长的山车旅行,我的许多朋友也如此。在1999年,美国股市牛劲十足,股票狂涨,道琼斯和纳斯达克指数分别达到各自历史最高点。技术股涨势尤其疯狂。你并不需要是一个技术专家才能挑到适当的股票,从而致富。你闭着眼睛随便挑一支技术股,过不了多久就会获利。我们大多数- -我指我们的朋友圈子――就是在那个时候进入股市的。
在康奈尔大学的时候,我选了几门金融方面的课,学了一些有关股市的基本概念,比如"买低卖高","风险均摊"(也就是说,不要把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里),"长期投资".然而,作为股市上的新手,我发现很难把所学的东西用起来。首先,什么时候股票价格跌到谷底,什么时候会调头回升,对此很难做出一个恰当的判断。我列了一个观察单子。有的股票简直是无处来风,势头稳健,不断攀高。有的股票则使劲往相反的方向跑。其次,"风险均摊"说起来容易,但是将我攒的那点积蓄放到股市上,把几千块钱分摊到几支股票上好像有点讲不通。当我把那些评估理论用到股票上时,我发现它们贵得惊人,尤其是网络股。另一方面,传统产业的股票受到了严重的打击。在我看来,它们倒像是便宜可买,也符合"买低"的原理,但是它们似乎总是处在红色之中,没有一点变绿的希望。
作为尝试,我挑了两支自以为公司基础好,值得一买的股票。我丈夫对股市一无所知,决定与我逆向而行。他通过看新闻,追踪热点,只挑了一支技术股。我对他能否成功深表怀疑。
自从我们挑了股票后,我们每天都盯着看股市行情。我们俩对股市的反应却各不相同。股市今天涨明天跌,我的精神就随着它的节拍,忽而飞上天空,忽而掉进地狱。虽然我告诉自己既然是长期投资,就不应该如此激动,但我就是控制不住自己,稍有赢利就会欢喜雀跃,稍有损失就会捶胸顿足。
我丈夫倒是不管发生什么,都能保持镇静。股市对他的惟一改变就是他的生活习惯。过去他如果当天没课就要很晚才起床。自从他进入股市后,他很早就起床,观看开市前的新闻,并做出相应的举动。他交易频繁,有时一天之中就会买卖一次。我取笑他,与其去做一个学者,不如做一个快乐的股票日日交易者。两个月之内,他赚了几千块钱。受到鼓舞,他在这上面投入了更多的时间和精力。每天结束时,他都有一堆分析家们关于我的和他自己的股票的各种各样的评论,因为我自己没有多少时间去做研究。我一方面为他自己喜欢做这件事并能挣到一些钱而感到高兴,同时又担心这过多地占用了他的时间。然而,现在是很难让他回到进入股市前的生活状态去了。他减少了在网上搜寻股票信息的时间,但他仍会情不自禁地打开电视去看CNBC,这是一个专门报道股市的电视频道。我们同朋友聚会时,股票似乎是我们谈论的惟一话题。每个人对股市都牛气十足,一个美丽光明的未来似乎就近在咫尺了。
但是梦想终归是梦想,半年之后,我和我丈夫把我们赚的钱都赔进去了。我们以为这只不过是对技术股泡沫的一个更正,许多人认为技术股的价值被高估了;这并不意味着熊市来了。更正一旦过去,股市又会往前冲的。但是,即便这只是一个更正,也把我们烫得够呛,因为在把"风险均摊"的原则抛诸脑后之后,我们的户头上技术股占的份量过重。更糟糕的是,整个股市不停地往下滑,似乎要滑向一个深不可测的深渊。早知道会有如此剧烈的一个熊市变化,我当初就绝对不敢进去。我丈夫也很沮丧,但对未来还保持谨慎的乐观。他不再进行日日交易了,惟一的愿望就是他所失掉的迟早会再捞回来。
2000年,道琼斯指数跌了6%,纳斯达克跌了37%。股市什么时候才会回来?我丈夫不知道,我不知道,分析家们也不知道。
注释:
1.consolidation n.价格平稳期
2.correction n.回落,回跌
3.ouch int.哎!
4.tank vi.猛跌
5.drat int.讨厌!见鬼!
6.roller-coaster adj.过山车的
7.zig n.急转,急变
8.zag n.方向突变
9.exhilarating adj.使人兴奋的
10.gut n.勇气,胆量,毅力
11.soar vi.猛增,剧增
12.guru n.专家,权威
13.sheer adj.完全的,彻底的
14.portfolio n.投资者持有的各种证券,Diversifyyour~。持有多种证券以均摊风险
15.agreenhand生手
16.momentum n.冲力,势头
17.headlong adv.迅猛地,一往无前地
18.dubious adj.怀疑的,疑惑的
19.fare vi.进展,成功
20.rhythm n.节拍
21.stomp vi.跺脚
22.composure n.镇静,沉着
23.kid vt.戏弄,取笑
24.academician n.学者
25.ton n.大量,许多
26.aroundthecorner行将发生的,即将来到的
27.abyss n.深渊
28.gauge vt.估计,判定
29.cautiously adv.谨慎地
30.inthelongrun最终,终究
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